A Random Walk Down The AI Street

One great book I recommend when thinking about investment is A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Beyond helping you decide where to put your money, it’s a great reminder of how Wall Street has historically reacted to new technology crazes.

While I don’t personally agree with the author’s views on crypto, it’s striking how often transformative technologies like the internet have sparked massive investment bubbles. AI is not going to be an exception.

In A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel details how the internet boom of the late 1990s saw investors pour money into companies with little revenue or business plan, simply because they added “.com” to their name. He also warns that fear of missing out in the face of new technology often leads to speculative bubbles, which inevitably burst.

Are we in a Bubble? a key indicator for me is the recent announcement of a $10 billion valuation with $2 billion in capital raised for a startup led by the former CTO of OpenAI,  a company that nobody knows what it actually does. While I’m all for stealth mode, this feels reminiscent of past hype cycles, from Magic Leap’s game-changing promises in VR to  Kodak’s stock price tripled in two days after announcing its work crypto coin.

Make no mistake: AI is here to change the world, probably with an impact comparable to the internet. But just like we still have bookstores, developers will still have jobs.

There will be big winners  and  plenty of losers too. If you’re considering an investment in this space, it’s crucial to look under the hood and make sure you’re backing more than just a thin layer of wrappers around existing models. Look for teams building something truly disruptive.